AI, how close is it?
The other night I had thoughts flying through my head and one was, is my career choice the right one.
Since then Cam has told me that I shouldn’t that far into the future but I can’t resist the thought on what will happen in the next 20 years.
Bare with me here… but it will make sense in a moment.
If you told anyone 20 years ago, May 28th 1985 that some day most of the world’s work will be done via a computer at everyone’s desk or that information is available almost instantly on a network called the internet they would just laugh at you. Yes the first .com internet domain was registered on 03/15/1985 but it wasn’t like it was world news back then. Maybe an article in the popular science, but that is about it. Alright so lets speed up back to the present…
Having said that, is it really that hard to imagine what computers or technology will do for us in general 20 years from now. Considering I’ll only be 40, I will still be working at a job. It isn’t like I am close to retiring. The field I pursuing is a risky one. How is it risky? Sure computers will be around and are here to stay but don’t forget that these same things we call computers once took an entire floor of a moderately sized building to function correctly. But considering computers are getting more and more complex concurrently they are getting easier and easier to fix due to the current generation being so computer savvy. Currently the console gaming industry are designing next gen consoles for the gaming crowd. Gamers now expect so much from their consoles that they want more power, better graphics, etc etc etc. It is even getting to the point where gaming consoles will be better and more computer then your computer in the family room. A word processor doesn’t require a quadruple core 3.2 GHz processor, but a game that has to be realistic sure does due to the complex code & graphics that has to be processed by the GPU / CPU. So what does this mean you ask? When the playstation 3 is released early next year or the Xbox 360, the computing power in the console will be about as powerful as 1% of a human brain. Yes believe it or not, human brains are still more powerful then a computer processor. Sure that Pentium 4 or AMD Athlon can do an equation faster then a human brain but we have a lot more going on. Ever factor in vision, hearing, touch, speech or thought? A computer is good for looking up information but that is it, for now.
If we factor in Moore’s law, which states that technology doubles in performance every 18 months, that 1% might not seem like a lot but lets put it into perspective..
January 2006 (estimated and easier for math) - Xbox 360 is released, 1% the processing power of a human brain
July 2007 - 2% processing power
Jan 2009 - 4%
Jul 2011 - 8%
Jan 2013 - 16%
Jul 2015 - 32%
Jan 2017 - 64%
Nov 2017 - ~100%
Jul 2019 - 128%
Basically after November 2017, the computer as a system will be smarter then us humans. Sure this is all a theory or it might never happen, but they probably said that 20 years ago or 50 years ago when we decided to go to the moon. However if you put it into perspective this is more possible then you think. Our generation and every generation hereafter is going to have the greatest challenge to humans to date. We will be the creators of a superior machine / being then that to a human being. Considering a lot of humans have a tendancy to stick with the old ways you can already imagine the amount of laws, discussions, activist groups, etc etc that will come from all this. So I know I am speculating but getting back at to what I originally was worried about. Will there even be a job for IT people 15-20 years from now or is it a job that will just fade away, especially once a computer starts to figure out how to clean it self up or knows how to block an internet attack from a punk kid in a suburb of (insert city here). I guess time will tell….
Alright thats enough futurecasting for me tonight,
Yvo
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